Hubert Hurkacz Could be a World-Beater

Small changes can make a big difference at the top of the game

We start March with February’s article. With the sunshine double kicking off, I’m having a look at one of the recent winners on this swing. Currently ranked 8, Hubi Hurkacz has spent a sizable chunk of the last few years somewhere around the top 10. He owes a lot of his success to his world class serving; in particular, the 1st serve. To illustrate just how good his 1st serve is, here are a few tables from the tennis abstract top 50 leaderboard last year*.

*Filters used: Tour level matches, vs top 50 (all numbers quoted in this article use these filters).

Highest ace % on tour, 3rd highest 1st serve points won and 2nd highest hold %. Not bad. However, there’s another metric I’d like to have a look at. This is 1st serves in multiplied by 1st serve points won, or 1st serve effectiveness as I’m calling it. Basically, this is the percentage of service points that are won with a 1st serve. There’s not a lot of benefit to winning lots of 1st serve points while missing every other 1st serve. By the same token a high 1st serve % is useless if you’re just rolling the serve in. Here are the top 10 for 1st serve effectiveness:

Hurkacz is one of only 2 players to breach the 50% mark. The other is Zverev, who is top thanks to his incredible 1st serve % (71.5%). This is very close to his actual 1st serve points won (71.8%). To give you an idea of how rare this is, only 3 players in the top 50 last year had a higher 1st serve % than 1st serve points won. They were Davidovich Fokina, Baez and Nishioka (ranked 48, 49 and 50 respectively in 1st serve points won).

50% might not sound like a lot. But if you think of it this way - when Hurkacz stands up to the line he’s going to win half of his service points without even having to think about hitting a 2nd serve. That is fantastic reassurance to have when it gets to the pressure points. 

This graph here shows the average* total points won (TPW) for each rank in the top 50 against opponents in the top 50 over the last 10 years (replaced the anomaly that was 2020 with 2013). The total points won number doesn’t use the absolute number, instead it is an adjusted number using a formula that I won’t bore you with the details of (formula and explanation can be found at the end of the article). The key takeaway is that it assigns the same weight to serve and return points. The red line shows the expected total points won for each rank.

*The highest 2 and lowest 2 values for each rank were not included in the average calculation to avoid outliers.

Here are a few key milestones for the expected numbers:

This really illustrates just how much it takes to get to the top 10, top 5 or number 1. The jump from 50 to 10 is actually smaller than 10 to 2. Last year Hurkacz had an adjusted TPW of 50.8%, so right on the top 10 mark. To become a consistent top 5 player he will theoretically need to win an extra 1.3% of points, or assuming the serve stays the same, an extra 2.6% of return points. This might sound like a lot, but if I told you he just had to return to the same level as Grigor Dimitrov usually does it wouldn’t sound that outrageous.

An area with a significant amount of room for improvement is the 2nd serve return. Last year, Hurkacz was 40th on 1st serve return points won (25.2%) and 43rd on 2nd serve return points won (45.8%) in the top 50. Of the basic stats, 2nd serve return points won is, to me, the best indicator of general rally performance. I.e. if a rally is started on evenish terms, who will win most often. And rallies = groundstrokes. To further back this up, despite his serving prowess, Hurkacz ranked 29th in 2nd serve points won (49.8%). This drop from his 1st serve rank is pretty much all down to the rally performance (Hurkacz double faults less than the average player).

While having a very technically sound backhand, the Hurkacz forehand is more prone to being exploited by opponents. With enough time on the shot, it can be lethal. But as soon as he is rushed on it or has to play low balls it becomes an issue. In these situations Hurkacz will often throw a slower loopier forehand back that sits up nicely for the opponent. He’s not able to swing through like a Sinner or Alcaraz would in these scenarios. This is a common downfall for flatter forehands. Alex De Minaur experiences the same to a lesser extent. He, however, is one of the best movers on tour. Hurkacz, understandably, is not. The long stroke and lack of bite are more costly for him.

The good news for Hurkacz is that he has an incredible serve. There are days where worst comes to worst he’ll guarantee himself a tiebreak in each set and opponents won’t come close to breaking him. Coach Craig Boynton will always be working on the groundstrokes and, I believe, the forehand in particular to make it more potent. It will be interesting to monitor the Hurkacz forehand over the next year and see if there are any minor technical changes. While technical changes are always a risk, for Hubert Hurkcaz they could make him a world-beater.

Appendix

Cover photo by Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Formulae and explanations

Abbreviations

• aTPW = Adjusted total points won

• SPW = Serve points won

• rRPW = Relative return points won

• MnOppRnkD = Mean opponent rank difference (mean opponent rank compared to average mean opponent rank for top 50)

• 1stIn50 = Average 1st serve % for top 50

• v1st% = 1st serve return points won

• v2nd% = 2nd serve return points won

Relative return points won

rRPW = 1stIn50*v1st% + (1-1stIn50)*v2nd%

• In order to account for different 1st serve %s faced, the relative return points won gives each player a number based on the average 1st serve % of the top 50 for that year.

Adjusted total points won

aTPW = (0.5*SPW + 0.5*rRPW)*(1+MnOppRnkD*0.00133)

• Weights serve and return points won equally, using relative return points won for an even playing field

• Applies a small multiplier based on the average opponent rank faced (opponent rank differences will never be too extreme as this is only for matches against top 50 players).

  • A mean opponent rank difference of 1 will increase the total points won by 0.133% (multiplying it by 100.133%)