Welcome to The Set Break
Predictions for 2024.
Hello, and welcome to The Set Break. My name is Iain* and I have somehow found myself analysing tennis matches for a living. That living isn’t down to this blog (if 10 people read this I’ll be happy), instead it is working for Hawk-Eye. Yes, it is an actual company with people. My claim to fame is doing the pickle juice stat at the United Cup last year. That was also the first and last time I will be mentioned in the same sentence as Laura Robson and Paula Badosa. Safe to say it’s been downhill ever since.
Pickle juice, copyright TennisTV.
*pronounced like the other Ian (not Lain, Tain, Eden etc.) My parents decided to stick another I in there.
I spent a few minutes (days) trying to think of a witty quote to start this article with, but as you might have established, that was unsuccessful. Instead, I can give you a bit of background to all this. Why The Set Break? Well, you see it’s actually very philosophical as it refers to the end of- Nah, I looked at every other tennis blog/podcast/youtube channel and that was the only tennis adjacent name I could find that hadn’t been taken already. I’ll need to think of a more inspiring story.
For 2024 I’ve set myself a goal of writing one article a month. These will (should) all cover tennis and numbers. Maybe some insight will be thrown in here and there. We’ll see. Speaking of numbers, this blog wouldn’t be possible without the incredible work done by Jeff Sackman of Tennis Abstract fame. That website is a gold mine and the whole sport is indebted to him.
So, enough rambling (trust me, there’ll be plenty of that to come), let’s get to it. For article 1 I thought no better way to kick off 2024 with some predictions for the year. Feel free to throw these back in my face when Djokovic and Swiatek have shock early exits in Melbourne.
Grand Slams
Australian Open: Djokovic and Swiatek
French Open: Alcaraz and Swiatek
Wimbledon: Djokovic and Muchova
US Open: Sinner and Swiatek
Olympics: Djokovic and Swiatek
Yep, nothing too groundbreaking here. I’m of the belief that any time Djokovic comes out at 85%+ now he wins the match. However, he is turning 37 this year. He will slow down at some point. Will that be this year? Will that be 2026? I have a similar belief for Swiatek, except she turns 23 this year. She won’t be slowing down anytime soon. What is scary for the rest of the tour is that her serve has room for improvement (despite the perceived serve weakness, she came 1st for service points won last year).
So, the other names in there. Carlos Alcaraz - have you heard of him? His match with Djokovic at Roland Garros last year was turning into a modern classic before the cramps came. I don’t think he’s going to let that happen again. The most rogue name in there is Karolina Muchova. Grass is a great fit for the variety she possesses. She had some promising runs at Wimbledon before the injury troubles, with quarter final appearances in 2019 and 2021. I also believe she plays better tennis than her current rank of 9 suggests. More on that later. And then there’s Jannik Sinner. I’ve seen a few people picking him for the Australian Open, and rightfully so. The improvements he has made under Darren Cahill and Simone Vagnozzi in the last couple of years have been spectacular. I personally think Australia is a bit early, but can see him putting in some performances under the bright lights of New York.
General Predictions
Victoria Azarenka to roll back the years and make a slam final
In 2023 Azarenka played some of her best tennis in years. Whilst she did not have much to show for it at the 1000 events, reaching the Australian Open semi final in January was only the 2nd time she’d reached the last 4 at a slam since the 2013 US Open final (also reached the 2020 US Open final). Historically, the Australian Open has been her most successful slam. With two titles, her match record down under speaks for itself. A potential quarter final against Iga Swiatek looms and Azarenka might just have the game to disrupt the world no. 1.
Sebastian Korda to break into the top 10 and reach a slam semi
There has been a fair amount of hype around Korda since he turned pro, with a chunk coming from the man himself. Whilst that infamous quote sent him on his way to a round 1 defeat at Wimbledon last year, the underlying numbers for the year were very promising. He started the year off by having a championship point against Djokovic in Adelaide before beating Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open. Injury struggles led to him missing the sunshine double and Monte Carlo. But a fit and healthy Seb Korda is a force to be reckoned with. I think this is the year for him to break into the top 10 and make a deep run at a slam. Hey, maybe he was just a year early with his own Wimbledon prediction.
Karolina Muchova breaks into the top 4
Muchova is in the very interesting position where 75% of her ranking points have come from just three events (French Open final, US Open semi final, Cincinnati final). Now this can go two ways. Maybe you’re a glass half empty kind of person (I prefer to say realist) and see that as a lot of points to lose at a small number of events. Or maybe you’re a glass half full and see that as a lot of points to gain at a large number of events. A big reason for the above is her injury struggles - injury struggles that have since led to her pulling out of the Australian Open for the 2nd time in three years. Big, big if, but if Muchova can get fit in time for the sunshine double and get a decent run of injury free tennis I believe she can find her way into the top 4.
Roman Safiullin to break into the top 20
2023 saw Roman Safiullin burst onto the scene. With the ultra aggressive gamestyle, it is easy to draw comparisons to countryman Aslan Karatsev. As Karatsev is well aware, the razor thin margins in tennis are even thinner when you go all out attack all the time. But, if you can find a way to balance this with a bit of defence here and there the results can be very noteworthy. Safiullin is already starting to make his mark. His performance against Zverev in Shanghai last year was one of the best I saw from anyone all year. He then followed this up a few weeks later with a straight-sets win against Carlos Alcaraz in Paris. I believe he is going to keep trending in the right direction and find himself in the top 20 by the end of the year. He might even throw in another quarter final run at a slam.
Andy Murray to reach the Wimbledon quarter final and lose a heartbreaker
He should’ve done it in 2023. Tsitsipas was there for the taking. Had Murray challenged that return he “missed” at 4-4 15-30 in the 4th set it could have been a very different story. Had it not been called out in the first place it probably would have been a very different story. I’ve not really got any current numbers to go on, only the glimpses he’s shown of the old Murray in the last few years. I like to think he’s got one last big slam run in him.
Ash Barty to announce a 2025 comeback?
Never say never.
Send your questions/concerns/comments/abuse to me on Twitter: @IainMac98. Or leave a comment below if that’s easier.